COVID-19 Model Shows Improvement In Projected Utah Deaths

Apr 6, 2020, 6:16 PM | Updated: 8:04 pm

SALT LAKE CITY, Utah – The estimation models on how many deaths and hospitalizations that can be expected from COVID-19 in Utah have improved dramatically in the last few days.

The updated projection models from the Institutes for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington give some hope that Utah’s healthcare systems will not be overwhelmed by the virus.

Despite the improvement in projections for the number of deaths, Utah epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn said state officials were still preparing for the worst case scenarios.

“We are hopeful that those predictions hold true, but we’re preparing for the case that they might not be,” she said.

Those models still estimate April 15 will be the peak for COVID-19 deaths in the United States. The predicted peak in Utah has moved back two days, from April 23 to 25.

The Beehive State’s total number of projected deaths by August was drastically down from nearly 600, to fewer than 200 in the updated projection.

Dunn talked about the reason for the change during Monday’s daily media briefing from the Utah Department of Health.

“We’re not seeing an exponential growth that is expected,” she said. “Because of that, our predicted deaths are low.”

Still a terrible situation, but not as dire as it once appeared.

The model before the weekend also projected 18 deaths for five straight days at the peak. That has been revised down to five to seven deaths, and a flatter curve.

The projection for the number of people to be hospitalized was also revised to less than a quarter of what was predicted previously, down significantly from 1,800 to 400.

LINK: COVID-19 Projections

Utah’s hospitalization rate of COVID-19 patients remained steady at about 10 percent. It also appeared Utah will have the necessary ICU beds to handle the predicted surge of cases.

The projections were based upon incoming data, and they can change again as the actual numbers are entered into the model.

“We are always preparing for worst case scenarios,” said Dunn. “We are actively planning for what we would do if there is a surge on our healthcare systems, to ensure that those who need medical care can get it.“

All of these models were based upon the public adhering to strict social distancing practices through the end of May – meaning it’s not the time for anyone in the state to let their guard down and go back to life as usual.

“These are all still models, so the daily case counts and the more data we put into these models, the more accurate they will be,” said Dunn. “They are likely to change over the coming weeks, as well.”

KSL 5 TV Live

Top Stories


Katija Stjepovic

Utah arts and cultural jobs are surging after COVID pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic pulled the curtains on most of Utah's arts and cultural jobs, but after nearly three years, they are reemerging. 
1 day ago
Ashley Moser

Flu, COVID and RSV all trending down for the first time in months, says CDC

Major respiratory illnesses are all trending down for the first time since September, according to the CDC.
15 days ago
FILE PHOTO (Photo by Matthew Hatcher/Getty Images)...
Josh Ellis

Utah doctor, others charged with running COVID vaccine scheme, issuing fake records and giving fake shots

A Utah plastic surgeon, his medical corporation and three others have been charged after prosecutors say they issued fake COVID-19 vaccination record cards and injected minors with saline shots.
21 days ago
Dr. Angela Dunn, executive director of Salt Lake County Health Department, left, discusses schoolch...
Michael Houck

Salt Lake County ends its COVID-19 emergency status

After nearly three years, the Salt Lake County Health Department ended its COVID emergency status Tuesday. 
29 days ago
FILE: People line up in their cars as members of the Utah National Guard give COVID-19 swab tests a...
Eliza Pace

Gov. Cox, along with 24 other governors, call on President Biden to end Federal Public Health Emergency

Gov. Spencer Cox signed a letter with 24 other governors calling on President Joe Biden to end the federal public health emergency over the COVID-19 pandemic.
2 months ago
U.S. President Joe Biden welcomes guests to the East Room of the White House on December 14, 2022 i...
ZEKE MILLER, AP White House Correspondent

White House reveals winter COVID-19 plans, more free tests

The Biden administration is again making some free COVID-19 tests available to all U.S. households as it unveils its contingency plans for potential coronavirus surges this winter.
2 months ago

Sponsored Articles

vintage photo of lighting showroom featuring chandeliers, lamps, wall lights and mirrors...
Lighting Design

History of Lighting Design | Over 25 Years of Providing Utah With the Latest Trends and Styles

Read about the history of Lighting Design, a family-owned and operated business that paved the way for the lighting industry in Utah.
Fiber Optical cables connected to an optic ports and Network cables connected to ethernet ports...
Brian Huston, CE and Anthony Perkins, BICSI

Why Every Business Needs a Structured Cabling System

A structured cabling system benefits businesses by giving you faster processing speeds and making your network more efficient and reliable.
notebook with password notes highlighted...
PC Laptops

How to Create Strong Passwords You Can Actually Remember

Learn how you can create strong passwords that are actually easy to remember! In a short time you can create new ones in seconds.
house with for rent sign posted...
Chase Harrington, president and COO of Entrata

Top 5 Reasons You May Want to Consider Apartment Life Over Owning a Home

There are many benefits of renting that can be overshadowed by the allure of buying a home. Here are five reasons why renting might be right for you.
Festive kitchen in Christmas decorations. Christmas dining room....
Lighting Design

6 Holiday Decor Trends to Try in 2022

We've rounded out the top 6 holiday decor trends for 2022 so you can be ahead of the game before you start shopping. 
Happy diverse college or university students are having fun on their graduation day...
BYU MBA at the Marriott School of Business

How to Choose What MBA Program is Right for You: Take this Quiz Before You Apply!

Wondering what MBA program is right for you? Take this quiz before you apply to see if it will help you meet your goals.
COVID-19 Model Shows Improvement In Projected Utah Deaths