Jazz Mailbag: How Do Jazz Compare To Other Lottery Teams?
Sep 17, 2024, 3:47 PM
SALT LAKE CITY – Welcome to the KSL Sports mailbag where this week we look at how the Utah Jazz stack up against the rest of the projected lottery teams.
Each week we will send out a prompt on X asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.
Then, we’ll respond to as many as we can in that week’s mailbag.
Mailbag: How Do Jazz Compare To Other Lottery Teams?
It’s possible that the Spurs jump the Jazz in the upcoming lottery with both of their picks. Can you talk a little bit how you see the Spurs season goes in comparison to the Jazz? (If this does happen, I may have to stop watching the NBA)
— James McKinney (@Jampod2k) September 17, 2024
Question: It’s possible that the Spurs jump the Jazz in the upcoming lottery with both of their picks. Can you talk a little bit about how you see the Spurs season going compared to the Jazz?
Answer: This is probably the most pressing question for the Jazz heading into the season, but rather than focusing on just San Antonio, let’s expand it to include all of the teams that have a case for finishing with a bottom-five record in the NBA next season.
Since you mentioned San Antonio, let’s start there, and I will lay out the case for, and the case against these teams beating the Jazz in the final standings.
Why Spurs Will Finish Better Than The Jazz: Victor Wembanyama will finish the season as a top-ten player in the NBA, and is the front-runner to win Defensive Player of the Year.
Teamed with Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins, and newcomer Stephon Castle, the Spurs are clearly a more talented team than the Jazz, and are far more likely to compete for a top-six playoff seed than a top lottery selection
Victor Wembanyama in his NBA debut:
– 15 PTS (9 in Q4)
– 5 REB
– 67% FGWelcome to the Association 💪 #KiaTipOff23 pic.twitter.com/eFWYCoBmy6
— NBA (@NBA) October 26, 2023
While the Spurs also own Atlanta’s unprotected lottery pick, the Hawks should have very little motivation to be one of worst teams in the league, and the combination of Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, number one overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, and Quin Snyder should allow them to compete for a play-in spot in the mediocre Eastern Conference.
Why Spurs Will Be Worse Better Than The Jazz: If the Spurs have any hopes of landing another high lottery pick before Wembanyama starts dominating the league, this year is likely their last opportunity.
If San Antonio chooses to significantly limit Wemby’s number of games played, and looks to trade both Paul and Barnes in season, there’s a chance they could finish worse than the Jazz, but it’s a long shot.
The Hawks meanwhile are a Trae Young injury away from being one of the worst teams in the NBA, but after missing nearly half the season this year, Young will be motivated to prove his doubters wrong.
Why Nets Will Finish Better Than The Jazz: The overwhelming favorite to be the worst team in the NBA next season, the Nets may catch teams off-guard under new head coach Jordi Fernandez.
The combination of Dennis Schroder, Bojan Bogdanovic, Cam Thomas, Cam Johnson, and Nic Claxton jells quickly and wins enough games between October and January to avoid finishing with the worst record.
Why Nets Will Be Worse Than The Jazz: There’s a real argument that every player on the Nets is being asked to play two places above their ideal roles with Schroder, Bogdanovic, and Thomas expected to be the top three players in a rotation, rather than filling out a bench unit.
The Nets trade all of their vets mid-season and finish the season with a combination of two-players and 10-day contract mercenaries.
Why Wizards Will Finish Better Than The Jazz: The Wizards are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA based on last season’s performance, but I think there is room for growth.
After acquiring Malcolm Brogdon in the offseason, Washington will have a true floor general to help Jordan Poole regain his rhythm, and a potent frontcourt pairing with Kyle Kuzma and Jonas Valanciunas.
Alex Sarr against G League Ignite! 🤯
26 points
10 rebounds
3 assists
6 blocks
3 stealsWatch the highlights ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/B4Nu9gS7lE
— NBL (@NBL) September 9, 2023
The Wizards don’t have one single player that rivals Lauri Markkanen, but their depth could be better than the Jazz’s if either Bilal Coulibaly or Alex Sarr can contribute this season.
Why Wizards Will Be Worse Than The Jazz: The Wizards were probably the league’s most unserious franchise last season with Kuzma and Poole taking turns losing games in Washington.
Every player on the roster not named Sarr, Coulibaly, or Carlton Carrington will be on the trade block all season, and the overall instability will lead to another 15-win season.
Why Pistons Will Finish Better Than The Jazz: For full transparency, I do expect the Pistons to finish with a better record than the Jazz this season.
With a talented young core in Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren, and Jaden Ivey, plus the additions of Tobias Harris, Paul Reed, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Simone Fontecchio, Detroit has a deeper roster than the Jazz.
Those additions lead me to believe the Pistons are trying to win, rather than spend another year tracking their lottery standings. I don’t think Detroit will be terrific, but they should be closer to 30 wins than 20 at the end of the season.
Why Pistons Will Be Worse Than The Jazz: Care factor may be key in Detroit where the team hasn’t won more than 23 games in five straight seasons.
If new coach JB Bickerstaff can’t get through to the new-look roster, it may splinter quickly allowing the toxic culture to permeate the locker room once again.
Why Hornets Will Finish Better Than The Jazz: With LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Grant Williams, Brandon Miller, Josh Green, and Mark Williams, the Hornets have six legitimate NBA role players to rely on every night they take the floor.
No. 2 Pick Brandon Miller showcased an array of skills tonight vs. the Nets 👀
22 PTS
9 REB
1 BLK pic.twitter.com/ZBVBNjW5XT— NBA (@NBA) October 31, 2023
If Ball stays healthy, Miller takes another step in his second season, and the rest of the roster stays healthy, they could approach 30 wins on the season.
Why Hornets Will Be Worse Than The Jazz: Ball has played just 58 games total over the last two seasons and if he’s injured once again, the Hornets simply don’t have a potent enough offense to win games.
Miller may be a star in the making, but without Ball, the Hornets are a boat without a rudder.
Why Trail Blazers Will Finish Better Than The Jazz: While the Trail Blazers finished 10 games below the Jazz last season and didn’t make significant overhauls to their roster, better health may close the gap between the two teams this year.
Between Jerami Grant, DeAndre Ayton, Robert Williams, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, and Malcolm Brogdon, none of Portand’s best veterans played more than 55 games last season.
If replacing Brogdon with Deni Avdija proves to be fruitful, Grant, Ayton, Williams, Simons, or Sharpe stay healthier, and one of Scoot Henderson, Delano Banton, or Donovan Clingan can be back of the rotation contributors, Portland should easily surpass last year’s 21 game win total.
Why Trail Blazers Will Be Worse Than The Jazz: With Clingan now on the roster, both Ayton and Grant may see the writing on the wall that their time in Portland is coming to a close, and that could lead to both players angling to be traded.
If Henderson remains one of the league’s worst players, and their health elsewhere fails to improve, the Trail Blazers could be the worst team in the West.
Why Bulls Will Finish Better Than The Jazz: The addition of Josh Giddey gives the Bulls a certified offensive initiator who helps Zach LaVine return to All-Star form.
Zach LaVine continues to be ELITE.
33 points | 11-16 FG | 4 reb | 7 asts | 2 stl pic.twitter.com/TPj2XkNHuH
— Chicago Bulls (@chicagobulls) January 19, 2021
Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu continue to develop alongside one another to create a deep backcourt in Chicago, and owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s unwillingness to truly tank keeps the Bulls in the 30-35 win total range.
Why Bulls Will Be Worse Than The Jazz: Losing DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, and Andre Drummond in the offseason simply proves to be too much, and the unrest between LaVine and the Bulls continues to plague the locker room.
Chicago turns to Matas Buzelis over the second half of the year and tanks the last 40 games of the season finishing with a record in the low 20s.
Why Raptors Will Finish Better Than The Jazz: Scottie Barnes builds on last season’s All-Star performance and plays more than 60 games to finish the year.
The combination of Kelly Olynyk and Jakob Poeltl in the frontcourt, and Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Bruce Brown, and Davion Mitchell in the backcourt allows Toronto to compete for a play-in tournament spot rather than tank.
Why Raptors Will Be Worse Than The Jazz: The amount of turnover over the last 12 months proves to be too much and after a slow start, the Raptors drop to the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings as they look to add another star in the draft next to Barnes.
Listed above are nine teams that should finish in the bottom half of the NBA next season, and are the teams Jazz fans will need to monitor throughout the year
Each of the nine teams has a pathway to finish with a worse record than the Jazz, though I’d expect half to outperform expectations, and half to fall short.
With that in mind, I’d expect the Jazz to finish with a bottom-five record in the NBA, and will need a little lottery luck to land a top pick.
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Ben Anderson is the Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 10-12p with Jake Scott on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone. Find Ben on Twitter at @BensHoops or on Instagram @BensHoops.
