What to know about Hurricane Milton as it churns toward Florida’s Gulf Coast

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — Hurricane Milton churned through the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida on Tuesday as an “extremely dangerous” storm that could wallop one of the state’s major population centers just two weeks after deadly Hurricane Helene swamped the coastline.

The system is threatening the Tampa Bay area, which is home to more than 3.3 million people and has managed to evade a direct hit from a major hurricane for more than 100 years. Milton is also menacing other stretches of Florida’s west coast that were battered when Helene came ashore on Sept. 26.

Traffic was thick Tuesday heading north out of Tampa on Interstate 75 as people fled the area ahead of Milton. As they evacuated, crews along the coast hurried to clear Helene’s debris so that Milton doesn’t turn it into dangerous projectiles.

Milton strengthened to a Category 5 storm on Monday before weakening Tuesday to a Category 4. National Hurricane Center forecasters warned that the storm will likely remain a major hurricane and could even expand as it approaches Florida.

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When will Milton make landfall and how strong will it be?

Milton is expected to make landfall on Florida’s west coast late Wednesday. Forecasters said Tuesday that although it will likely fluctuate in intensity, Milton will remain “an extremely dangerous hurricane ” through landfall.

“We must be prepared for a major, major impact to the west coast of Florida,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday.

As of Tuesday morning, Milton had winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was centered about 520 miles (835 kilometers) southwest of Tampa.

Why are scientists saying this is a weird storm season?

Hurricane Milton is the latest system to come out of what scientists say is the weirdest storm season they’ve ever seen.

Even before the Atlantic hurricane season started, forecasters were predicting a busy year, and it began that way when Beryl was the earliest storm to reach Category 5 on record. But from Aug. 20 — the traditional start of peak hurricane season — to Sept. 23 it was record quiet, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

Then five hurricanes popped up between Sept. 26 and Oct. 6, more than double the old record of two. On Sunday and Monday, there were three hurricanes in October at the same time — something that never happened before — Klotzbach said. In just 46.5 hours, Hurricane Milton went from just forming as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a top-of-the-charts Category 5 hurricane.

How bad is damage expected to be?

Florida’s entire Gulf Coast is especially vulnerable to storm surge.

Helene came ashore about 150 miles (240 kilometers) away from Tampa in the Florida Panhandle and still managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to surges of around 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels.

Forecasters warned of a possible 10- to 15-foot (3- to 4.5-meter) storm surge in Tampa Bay. It is the highest surge ever predicted for that location and has led to evacuation orders for communities all along the coast.

The storm could also bring widespread flooding, with 5 inches to a foot (13 to 30 centimeters) of rain forecast for the Florida Peninsula, and even up to 18 inches (46 centimeters) in some places.

What if I have travel plans to that part of Florida?

Tampa International Airport said it halted flights at 9 a.m. Tuesday. The airport posted on X that it is not a shelter for people or their cars.

St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said it is in a mandatory evacuation zone and would close after the last flight leaves Tuesday.

What’s happening in Mexico?

Mexican officials were organizing buses to evacuate people from the low-lying coastal city of Progreso on the Yucatan Peninsula after Mexico’s National Meteorological Service said Hurricane Milton “may hit between Celestun and Progreso.”

Celestun, on the western corner of the peninsula, is a low-lying nature reserve home to tens of thousands of flamingos. Progreso, to the east, is a shipping and cruise ship port with a population of about 40,000.

Dozens of residents and tourists lined up with suitcases and other belongings on Monday to catch an evacuation ferry off Holbox Island, near the eastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Holbox, which is popular for its seascapes and tends to flood even in light rain, may be one of the closest Mexican points that Milton brushes before moving northeastward toward Florida.