Tropical Storm Rafael forms in the Caribbean and could threaten the US Gulf Coast

(CNN) — Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean Sea Monday afternoon and could bring a rare November threat to the United States this weekend after tearing through parts of the western Caribbean.

Rafael is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday and could rapidly intensify over the warm water of the northwest Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center. It’ll slam Cuba Wednesday and then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico.

From there, the storm’s ultimate path and intensity in the Gulf and potentially along the US Gulf Coast is difficult to pinpoint with confidence because the system has just formed and is still several days away from reaching the area.

“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the National Hurricane Center said, adding in its 10 p.m. update that predicting the storm’s path “remains a challenge.”

Anyone from the US Gulf Coast to the northeastern Mexico coast will need to monitor updates closely.

Despite the uncertainty, tropical alerts were issued for the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, adding to alerts already in place in Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

Early forecasts from the hurricane center show the system’s center reaching the US Gulf Coast later this weekend, anywhere from the Florida-Alabama border to Louisiana.

But this area could shift dramatically in the coming days while the system tracks through the Caribbean.

The drastic differences between two major forecast models on the storm’s track once it enters the Gulf of Mexico highlight the forecast uncertainty. One depicts Rafael making landfall in western Cuba, then tracking generally to the northwest before making landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The hurricane center’s forecast looks rather similar to this scenario.

But another model is showing the potential for Rafael to make an abrupt left turn once it gets into the open Gulf. From there it tracks generally to the west and could fall apart entirely or make landfall in northeastern Mexico or the western Gulf Coast instead.

Any shifts will have a significant impact on the flood threat from the storm in Florida and other parts of the Southeast. The storm is enhancing rainfall ahead in these areas ahead of its potential arrival there. This means any areas that do get rain from the storm later this week or weekend will face an increased flood threat.

Five hurricanes have made landfall on the Gulf Coast this year, but this storm seems unlikely to be as severe as hurricanes Helene and Milton because its strength could be hampered by the terrain of Cuba and hostile storm-disrupting winds over the Gulf.

Tropical activity typically winds down in November, but the month still occasionally produces a storm. However, US landfalls are exceptionally rare as 98% of named storms make landfall in the US before November, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry. The Atlantic hurricane season ends November 30.

While the threat the system poses to the US is still uncertain, its threats early this week in the Caribbean are much clearer.

The bulk of the system’s storminess was over the Caribbean Sea late Monday, while drenching rain had already begun in parts of Hispaniola and Jamaica. The Cuban government changed hurricane and tropical storm watches to warnings Monday night, the US hurricane center said, adding the Cayman Islands are under a hurricane warning.

The system could bring torrential rainfall and flash flooding to more of the western Caribbean over the next few days. This heavy rainfall could also lead to mudslides, especially in the mountainous terrain of Jamaica and southern Cuba.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected for Cuba and Jamaica. Heavy rain will spread into Florida and areas of the Southeast US by mid to late week. The lower and middle Florida Keys could see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.

Showers and thunderstorms were affecting most parishes in Jamaica while strong, gusty winds were blasting parts of the southern parishes, the country’s meteorological service said in its 8 p.m. ET update.

All in-person classes are canceled Tuesday in Jamaican schools, according to CNN affiliate Radio Jamaica News.

Rafael will also deliver strong, potentially damaging winds, especially once it reaches hurricane strength Tuesday.

Tropical storm-force winds will reach Jamaica overnight Monday or early Tuesday morning and expand to west-central Cuba and the Florida Keys on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds will roar over parts of the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and western Cuba on Wednesday.

These powerful winds will also churn up nearby seas and produce storm surge.

Up to 3 feet of storm surge could inundate parts of the Cayman Islands, while up to 9 feet of dangerous surge is possible in western Cuba.

Saltwater flooding for oceanside portions of the Florida Keys could reach up to a foot above recent high tides on Wednesday, according to a statement from the Key West office of the National Weather Service. It also said “a few tornadoes” were possible.