BYU: Ranking The Dificulty Of Each Remaining Game For The Cougars
Oct 6, 2024, 1:14 AM

PROVO, UTAH- Last week, the BYU Cougars narrowly escaped Waco, Texas with a 34-28 win over Baylor. An explosive first half gave BYU a 31-14 lead at the break, but the Bears came roaring back to put the pressure on late in the fourth quarter. Baylor owned possession with less than two minutes remaining and a chance to take the lead and likely win the game, but Crew Wakley sealed it for the Cougars with an interception with 59 seconds remaining.
𝑰𝑵 𝑻𝑯𝑬 𝑩𝑶𝑶𝑻𝑯 𝒘/ @gregwrubell & @975Hans @Crewwakley seals the deal with an interception pic.twitter.com/cJA2PBeVHJ
— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) October 1, 2024
Victory against Baylor made the Cougars undefeated through five weeks for only the eighth time in 100 seasons. Their last 5-0 start came in 2021 when they finished the regular season 10-2 with losses to Boise State and Baylor. The hot start for BYU has shocked many college football enthusiasts around the country, putting themselves in the driver’s seat in the Big 12, making a trip to the College Football Playoff a real possibility. So, let’s break down how the Cougars have shattered preseason expectations and the work they still have to do in their seven remaining games.
Preseason Expectations For The BYU Cougars
In the first year of the newly constructed 16-team Big 12, the Cougars were picked to finish 13th in the preseason poll, only chosen to finish ahead of Cincinnati, Houston, and Arizona State. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), BYU only had a 1% chance of starting the season 5-0, with a predicted 4.7 total wins, which the Cougars have obviously already surpassed. BYU now ranks 34th in the FPI, boasting the country’s 2nd-ranked strength of record, just behind the Alabama Crimson Tide. Entering the week 6 bye, the Cougars were the only 5-0 team in the Big 12 and are alone atop the conference standings. In the AP poll, BYU jumped all the way up to 17, now standing tall as the highest-ranked team in the state of Utah. From starting the season with a 1% chance to start 5-0, BYU has now been given a 23.7% to participate in the College Football Playoff.
BYU’s Path To 5-0
- W vs Southern Illinois, 41-13
- W @ SMU, 18-15
- BYU is SMU’s only loss of the season, and since playing the Cougars, SMU has had blowout wins against TCU and Florida State, as well as another impressive win against #22 Louisville. The Mustangs sit in first place in the ACC.
- W @ Wyoming, 34-14
- W vs Kansas State, 38-9
- BYU is Kansas State’s only loss of the season. The Wildcats’ resume includes blowout wins over #20 Arizona and #20 Oklahoma State. Kansas State sits in 7th place in a crowded Big 12 Conference.
- W @ Baylor, 34-28
The Cougars are ranked 41st in strength of schedule and 61st in remaining strength of schedule, making the remaining matchups very winnable.
The Cougars’ Remaining Schedule
According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, BYU will be favored in all but two of their remaining seven games, which is quite the contrast from the projections just two months ago. Here is the remaining schedule for the Cougars between now and November 30th:
- BYU vs Arizona, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2:oo p.m. MT
- BYU vs Oklahoma State, Friday, Oct. 18, 8:15 p.m. MT
- BYU @ UCF, Saturday, Oct. 26, TBD
- BYE
- BYU @ Utah, Saturday, Nov. 9, TBD
- BYU vs Kansas, Saturday, Nov. 16, TBD
- BYU @ Arizona State, Saturday, Nov. 23, TBD
- BYU vs Houston, Saturday, Nov. 30, TBD
Ranking The BYU Cougars’ Remaining Opponents
#7: The Houston Cougars
Houston was one of the three teams that was picked to finish below BYU in the Big 12 preseason poll, but unlike the BYU Cougars, the Houston Cougars have not been able to flip the script on their low expectations. Through six games, Houston is 2-4. Their two wins are against Rice and TCU, an upset on the road. They have already been shut out twice in back-to-back weeks against Cincinnati and Iowa State. Following the two scoreless weeks, the Houston Cougars made a change at quarterback, benching Donovan Smith for Zeon Chriss. With Chriss under center, Houston broke their scoreless streak and put up 30 points against TCU in a road upset. In the five weeks leading up to their battle with BYU, Houston will face three teams ranked in the top 30. The Houston Cougars rank last in the Big 12 in points and yards per game and sit middle of the pack on defense. Houston is currently 11th in the Big 12 standings. According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, BYU has an 82.8% chance to win the game.
#6: The Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas had lofty expectations coming into the 2024 season after finishing 9-4 last year, being ranked as high as #23. The Jayhawks were picked to finish 5th in the Big 12 preseason poll, receiving five 1st place votes. They opened their season with a huge win versus FCS Lindenwood, only to lose five in a row to Illinois, UNLV, West Virginia, TCU, and Arizona State. The disastrous start for the Jayhawks has earned them their longest losing streak since 2021. Kansas has given up 23 points or more in each of their losses, ranking 11th in the Big 12 in points per game. The offensive side of the ball hasn’t looked much better, ranking only above Houston in the conference in points per game with 28. Jalon Daniels has thrown eight interceptions and only five touchdowns. Kansas is now only projected to win 4.1 games this year. According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, BYU has a 66.1% chance to beat the Jayhawks.
#5: The Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State had a chip on their shoulder entering the season after being picked to finish last in the Big 12. With proper motivation, they came out of the gates hot, starting 3-0 with a quality non-conference win against Mississippi State of the SEC. The Sun Devil’s only loss came in a tight one, falling to Texas Tech 30-22. In their last outing, ASU reentered the W column in a shoutout win against Kansas. Arizona State has had no problem scoring points, raking 7th in the conference just behind BYU. Though high-scoring, the offense has been conservative with freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt captaining the ship. Leavitt has only thrown three touchdowns to go along with two interceptions, but he has otherwise been efficient, completing 59.1% of his passes, averaging 7.8 yards. The Arizona State defense has also been staunch, sitting in the top half of the conference in yards and points per game. However, take the Sun Devil’s early season success with a grain of salt as they rank 98th in strength of schedule and in the top 40 in remaining strength of schedule, meaning their toughest games are yet to come as they take on the top of the Big 12 in the weeks to come. With the game being in Tempe, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor is giving the Cougars a 53.8% chance to return to Provo victorious.
#4: The Arizona Wildcats
Arizona has had an up-and-down start to the year. Opening the season ranked #21, the Wildcats kickstarted things with an offensive explosion, scoring 61 points against New Mexico, only to score just 22 points in a less-than-exciting victory over FCS Northern Arizona. Arizona then lost the battle of the Wildcats, getting blown out by Kansas State 31-7. Arizona then came to Salt Lake to play the Utes as touchdown underdogs. The Wildcats followed up their dominance of Utah from last year with another upset win, taking down Utah 23-10. They then followed up their win in Utah by getting upset themselves by Texas Tech at home, falling to 3-2. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has shined in moments but has had an issue staying consistent with his four interceptions. The Wildcats have a weapon on offense in Tetairoa McMillan who is averaging 17.3 yards per reception and four touchdowns on the year. The Cougars and Wildcats could find themselves in a shootout in Provo when they meet next week. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has BYU as pretty heavy favorites at home, giving them a 66.4% chance to win.
#3: The Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State was thought to be one of the powerhouses of the Big 12, but since beginning the season 3-0, the Cowboys have dropped three consecutive games to open conference play. OSU received 14 first-place votes, landing in 3rd in the Big 12 preseason poll. The Cowboys scored nearly 43 points per game in their three wins to open the season, including a victory over Arkansas. The skid for Oklahoma State began when the Utah Utes went into Stillwater and won a scrappy game in which Utah held OSU to only 285 yards of total offense. In the following weeks, Oklahoma State lost by 22 to #23 Kansas State and by 24 to unranked West Virginia. The Cowboy’s defense has struggled, giving up 25 points per game, bottom four in the conference. A team many thought to be one of the teams to beat in the Big 12 now has no wins against conference opponents through three weeks, putting them in the basement cellar in 16th place. Regardless of record, Oklahoma State’s roster is talented and experienced and will be a formidable challenge for the Cougars. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor is giving BYU the slight edge, with a 53.1% chance to win. The Cougars will lean on the ROC to turn up the heat against the Cowboys in a few weeks.
#2: The UCF Knights
UCF has shown strong so far in their second year as members of the Big 12. The Knights, who were projected to finish 8th in the conference, got through non-conference play unblemished, beating New Hampshire and Sam Houston. UCF opened conference play with a comeback win at TCU. Central Florida’s first loss came at the hands of Colorado in their Big 12 home opener, losing 48-21. The Knights then traveled to Gainesville where they were defeated by the Florida Gators. UCF has been putting plenty of points on the board, averaging 34.2 points, good for 4th in the conference. However, the Knights find themselves with midseason roster issues. News broke just before their matchup with Florida that wide receiver Xavier Townsend and four other Knights would be redshirting for the remainder of the season, likely transferring in December. Townsend’s best performance came against Colorado with 50 yards on four receptions and a touchdown. The Knights will now have to fill that hole on offense. For BYU, the cross-country travel may be a factor and is the reason that this game is #2 on this list. As of today, the battle with UCF in Orlando will be one of two games where the Cougars are not favored, with ESPN’s Matchup Predictor only giving BYU a 39.6% chance to win, but this could change over the coming weeks.
#1: The Utah Utes
A first half of the season that most would consider successful has been tainted by a familiar tail for the Utes. They weren’t even to halftime in their week 2 matchup with Baylor before Cam Rising was once again sidelined with an injury, and he has still not seen the field since. Stepping up in his place has been true freshman Isaac Wilson, younger brother of former Cougar Zach Wilson. While Wilson has done enough to lead the Utes to four wins, the playbook has been restricted as he gains experience at the next level. Even with some early-season obstacles, the Utes are 4-1 with a signature win against Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Last week, Arizona shocked the Utes at home for their only loss on the season. Micah Bernard has been the Ute’s MVP so far, rushing for more than 100 yards per game through the first five weeks. Utah also owns the 2nd ranked scoring defense in the Big 12, allowing only 15 points and 280.2 yards per game. There are a lot of questions to be answered before these two rivals meet on November 9, including who will be under center for Utah, but as of right now, the Utes are the Cougars’ highest-ranked remaining opponent. Given the importance that this game could have for both team’s playoff hopes and the atmosphere that is sure to be rocking at Rice–Eccles Stadium, this is sure to be the toughest game down the stretch for BYU.
The BYU Cougars And The College Football Playoff
As of today, ESPN’s FPI is giving the Cougars a 23.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff, the second highest percentage among Big 12 teams only behind the 16th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones who have a 28.7% chance.
The winner of the Big 12 Championship game will receive an automatic bid to the post-season tournament, but with the new expanded 12-team format, you still have a chance at an at-large bid even if you fail to win your conference championship game.
The Cougars will be back in action next Saturday, October 12, taking on the Arizona Wildcats at LaVell Edwards Stadium, continuing their quest toward college football immortality.