Breaking News:

Predictive Ratings Forecast Another Difficult Year For BYU Football In 2024

Aug 14, 2024, 3:29 PM

Follow @kslsports...

PROVO, Utah – Expectations for BYU football in 2024 continue to be low.

The latest example of the outside being down on BYU football is two different predictive ratings. ESPN’s FPI and the Massey Ratings project a long season for BYU football.

Initially, you might think, what do these predictive ratings know?

In regards to ESPN FPI, they have been spot-on with BYU football for the past three seasons. Entering the 2021 season, after losing Zach Wilson and many other star players from the 2020 team, ESPN’s FPI favored BYU in 10 games. The Cougars won 10 games that season.

In 2022, while many tabbed BYU as a Top 25 team, the FPI favored BYU in seven games. BYU won seven regular season games in 2022.

Last year, BYU’s first in the Big 12, the FPI gave BYU a 50% or better chance of winning in only three games. BYU outperformed that metric, winning five games. Still, the season resulted in no postseason appearance—the first for BYU since 2017.

Laying all of that out there, despite its critics, the ESPN FPI has been spot-on with BYU football in recent seasons. That shouldn’t make BYU fans feel good heading into the 2024 campaign.

ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 50% or better winning percentage in only three games for the 2024 season. None of the games have BYU with a 90% or above winning probability.

The FPI’s projected win-loss record for BYU in 2024 is 4.8-7.2. They give BYU a 35.4% chance of reaching six wins, the minimum requirement to qualify for a bowl game.

Massey Ratings is another predictive metric that has BYU struggling in 2024. It gives BYU a 50% win probability or more in four games this fall and has BYU finishing with a 3-9 record.

Game-by-game win probabilities for the 2024 BYU football schedule

Here are the game-by-game win probabilities for BYU football in 2024 from ESPN’s FPI and Massey Ratings. ESPN FPI has BYU ranked No. 73 out of 134 teams nationally.

The Massey Ratings slide BYU in at No. 55.

Southern Illinois (Aug. 31)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 89.7%; Massey – 85%

Southern Illinois FPI rank: N/A (FCS Team)

at SMU (Sept. 6)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 19.7%; Massey – 37%

SMU FPI Rank: No. 25

at Wyoming (Sept. 14)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 60.9%; Massey – 63%

Wyoming FPI Rank: No. 99

Kansas State (Sept. 21)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 27.9%; Massey – 21%

Kansas State FPI Rank: No. 22

at Baylor (Sept. 28)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 34%; Massey – 40%

Baylor FPI Rank: No. 55

Arizona (Oct. 12)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 33.8%; Massey – 42%

Arizona FPI Rank: No. 24

Oklahoma State (Oct. 18)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 30.2%; Massey – 34%

Oklahoma State FPI Rank: No. 26

at UCF (Oct. 26)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 22.7%; Massey – 38%

UCF FPI Rank: No. 32

at Utah (Nov. 9)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 24%; Massey – 18%

Utah FPI Rank: No. 27

Kansas (Nov. 16)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 27.5%; Massey – 44%

Kansas FPI Rank: No. 17

at Arizona State (Nov. 23)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 42.4%; Massey – 50%

Arizona State FPI Rank: No. 63

Houston (Nov. 30)

BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 62.6%; Massey – 63%

Houston FPI Rank: No. 78

Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for KSLsports.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.

Take us with you wherever you go.

Download the new & improved KSL Sports app from Utah’s sports leader. You can stream live radio and video and stay up to date on all of your favorite teams.

KSL 5 TV Live

KSLSports Feed

Follow @kslsports...

KSL Sports

Bronny James Gifts BYU WR JoJo Phillips Signed Game Jersey

Bronny James reunited with his former high school teammate JoJo Phillips and gifted the BYU wide receiver a signed game jersey.

9 hours ago

Follow @kslsports...

KSL Sports

Luka Doncic Carves Time To Sign Autographs For Fans In Utah

Luka Doncic made time on Wednesday to sign autographs for his fans in Utah as the Los Angeles Lakers faced the Jazz.

10 hours ago

Follow @kslsports...

KSL Sports

Jazz Get Revenge Over Doncic, Lakers 131-119

SALT LAKE CITY – The Utah Jazz sent Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers into the All-Star break with a 131-119 loss. Lauri Markkanen led all scorers with 32 points while the Lakers were led by Rui Hachimura who scored 19. Game Blog: Jazz Blowout Lakers In Salt Lake City Jazz Guards Stuff Stat […]

10 hours ago

Follow @kslsports...

KSL Sports

Jazz Sink Lakers In Home Blowout

NBA-title hopeful Los Angeles Lakers take their traveling circus on the road to face the Utah Jazz three days after beating Utah by 19.

11 hours ago

Follow @kslsports...

KSL Sports

Three-Point Barrage Helps Jazz Pull Away From Lakers

SALT LAKE CITY - The Utah Jazz are firing on all cylinders, building a 20-point lead over the superstar-laden Lakers late in the third quarter.

12 hours ago

Follow @kslsports...

KSL Sports

Howard Eisley Returns To Delta Center As Jazz Host Lakers

SALT LAKE CITY - Former Utah Jazz backup point guard Howard Eisley is in the house at Delta Center tonight, returning to his former NBA home. 

12 hours ago

Sponsored Articles

luxury living room with a classic white sofa and sofa, interior design...

Lighting Design

Revisiting home lighting trends for 2025

Looking for inspiration to revamp your home lighting? This article outlines some of the emerging lighting trends for 2025.

holiday gift basket with blue tissue paper and gingerbread cookies...

Kneaders Bakery & Cafe

Holiday hacks for a stress-free season

Get more out of your time with family and loved ones over the holidays by following these tips for a stress-free season.

2 computer techs in a computer shop holding up a computer server with the "hang loose" sign...

PC Laptops

A comprehensive guide to choosing the right computer

With these tips, choosing the right computer that fits your needs and your budget will be easier than ever.

crowds of people in a German style Christmas market...

This Is The Place Heritage Park

Celebrate Christkindlmarket at This Is The Place Heritage Park!

The Christkindlmarket is an annual holiday celebration influenced by German traditions and generous giving.

Image of pretty woman walking in snowy mountains. Portrait of female wearing warm winter earmuff, r...

Lighting Design

Brighten your mood this winter with these lighting tricks

Read our lighting tips on how to brighten your mood in the winter if you are experiencing seasonal affective disorder.

A kitchen with a washer and dryer and a refrigerator...

Appliance Man

Appliance Man: a trusted name in Utah’s home appliance industry

Despite many recent closures of local appliance stores, Appliance Man remains Utah's trusted home appliance business and is here to stay.

Predictive Ratings Forecast Another Difficult Year For BYU Football In 2024