Study says 2 key crops are harming Great Salt Lake; state unsure on recommendations

Editor’s note: This article is published through the Great Salt Lake Collaborative, a solutions journalism initiative that partners news, education and media organizations to help inform people about the plight of the Great Salt Lake.

SALT LAKE CITY — A new study finds two crops are major contributors to Great Salt Lake’s water woes, but researchers say there are solutions that can drastically improve flows to the lake.

However, a leader of the agency that manages the lake’s future says he believes it doesn’t offer any groundbreaking information about its decline while the state is still exploring multiple solutions for the lake.

“There’s nothing new. It’s just rehashing research that’s already been done,” said Great Salt Lake Deputy Director Tim Davis, adding that the state is still looking for “win-win” solutions. “I don’t think there was much emphasis in this study.”

What’s drying the lake?

The study, published Tuesday in Environmental Challenges, reveals about 62% of water from the lake’s tributaries has been diverted for human use. Agriculture accounts for about 71% of those depletions, with about 80% of that going toward alfalfa and grass hay for dairy and beef cattle.

Researchers from Utah State University, Oregon State University, Northern Arizona University, Virginia Tech and the New Mexico-based conservation group Sustainable Waters add that those losses contributed to the lake levels dropping about 4 inches every year between 1989 and 2022. It covers a span beginning three years after the lake’s highest point on record to its lowest point.

“The research highlights the alarming role of water consumption for feeding livestock in driving the lake’s rapid depletion,” William Ripple, a professor of ecology at Oregon State University and one of the study’s authors, said in a statement.

Davis isn’t surprised by the findings, as they seemingly reaffirm previous research about how the lake’s levels declined in the last few decades.

The Great Salt Lake Strike Team — a group of experts and academic researchers across Utah — estimated in 2023 that natural and human “consumptive use” could be as high as 67% to 73% of the lake’s losses any given year. Agricultural needs were determined to be a major source of consumptive uses, accounting for 62% to 67% of all consumptive depletion between 1991 and 2020.

The new study dives deeper into that data, finding about four-fifths of all agricultural water went to supporting alfalfa and hay for about 980,000 head of cattle in the lake’s basin.

Other studies have found alfalfa, hay and other pasture crops account for the vast majority of agricultural water needs. That’s because alfalfa and hay crops take up more than half of Utah’s irrigated agricultural land, according to a state report released in 2022. Officials say alfalfa is “a thirsty crop that requires more water than other potential crops.”

What can save it?

Great Salt Lake’s two arms entered this year about 5½ to 6½ feet below the lake’s minimum healthy level.

The research team behind the new study says a 35% cut in human water consumption within the Great Salt Lake basin is needed to “stabilize and begin refilling the lake.” They offer a few options but argue a 61% reduction in alfalfa production and fallowing between 26% and 55% of all grass hay crops in the basin would be the “most potent” way to get there.

It would cut agricultural revenues by about $97 million every year, but it could be recouped through government compensation programs that encourage farmers to fallow, or leave the land unplanted for some time between crops, should governments opt into the idea. The total loss would be about 0.04% of the state’s GDP.

Losing the lake, the team adds, would be far more catastrophic. They estimate the Great Salt Lake directly supports 9,000 jobs and $2.5 billion in economic activity through mineral extraction, brine shrimp harvesting and recreation. Those are also close to past figures that show the lake supports thousands of jobs and has an economic impact of about $2 billion.

That’s on top of the millions of migratory birds that also flock to the lake every year.

Davis agrees about the lake’s value but also believes the solutions offered in the study focus too much on one sector. The Office of the Great Salt Lake Commissioner is still set to release a new plan soon that aims to find reductions across all water-consuming sectors.

Utah leaders have also been quick to defend agricultural water uses when talking about consumption. Gov. Spencer Cox, in 2022, said he believes supply chain issues during the COVID-19 pandemic showed the value of local growth. He said at the time that food was “just as important as water, and you can’t get food without water.”

State leaders have focused more on agriculture water optimization, water banking and split-season leases instead, mirroring solutions that the strike team listed as having the most bang for the state’s buck.

The Utah Legislature pumped over $200 million toward the optimization program in recent years, helping farmers, ranchers and growers pay for projects or equipment that improve water efficiency, while also allocating $40 million to create a trust for short-term and permanent water donations to the lake.

Utah leaders also lauded a landmark deal reached with Compass Minerals last year that could conserve over 200,000 acre-feet of water annually.

“It’s going to take all sectors (and) everyone in the basin conserving, dedicating water and delivering water to get the lake where we need it,” Davis said.