NATIONAL NEWS

74% Of Economists In Survey See US Recession By End Of 2021

Aug 19, 2019, 5:17 AM | Updated: Jun 8, 2022, 5:03 pm
A Wall St. sign next to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
(NYSE)

WASHINGTON (AP) — A strong majority, 74%, of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump’s economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.

The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released Monday, mostly didn’t share Trump’s optimistic outlook for the economy, though they generally saw recession coming later than they did in a survey taken in February. Thirty-four percent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That’s up from 25% in the February survey.

An additional 38% of those polled predicted that recession will occur next year, down slightly from 42% in February. Another 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year.

In February, 77% of the economists expected a recession either this year, next year or in 2021.

A strong economy is key to the Republican president’s 2020 re-election prospects. Consumer confidence has dropped 6.4% since July.

Trump has dismissed concerns about a recession, offering an optimistic outlook for the economy after last week’s steep drop in the financial markets. He said Sunday, “I don’t think we’re having a recession. We’re doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut and they’re loaded up with money.”

Still, Trump on Monday called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least a full percentage point “over a fairly short period of time,” saying that would make the U.S. economy even better and would quickly boost the flagging global economy.

In two tweets, Trump kept up his pressure on the politically independent Fed and its chairman Jerome Powell, whom he chose to lead the Fed, asserting the U.S. economy was strong “despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed.”

While the economists in the NABE survey generally saw recession coming later than they had in February, the latest survey was taken between July 14 and Aug. 1 — before the financial markets last week signaled the possibility of a U.S. recession, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average into its biggest one-day drop of the year. Stock markets around the world shuddered as the White House announced 10% tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, the Chinese currency dipped below the seven-yuan-to-$1 level for the first time in 11 years and the Trump administration formally labeled China a currency manipulator.

The 226 economists responding work mainly for corporations and trade associations.

The economists have previously expressed concern that Trump’s tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually dampen the economy.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on goods from many key U.S. trading partners, from China and Europe to Mexico and Canada. Officials maintain that the tariffs, which are taxes on imports, will help the administration gain more favorable terms of trade. But U.S. trading partners have simply retaliated with tariffs of their own.

Trade between the U.S. and China, the two biggest global economies, has plunged. Trump decided last Wednesday to postpone until Dec. 15 tariffs on about 60% of an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to nearly everything the U.S. buys from China.

The economists surveyed by the NABE were skeptical about prospects for success of the latest round of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Only 5% predicted that a comprehensive trade deal would result, 64% suggested a superficial agreement was possible and nearly 25% expected nothing to be agreed upon by the two countries.

As a whole, the business economists’ recent responses have represented a rebuke of the Trump administration’s overall approach to the economy.

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. U.S. retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.

The survey showed a steep decline in the percentage of economists who found the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade “too stimulative” and likely to produce higher budget deficits that should be reduced, to 51% currently from 71% in August 2018.

KSL 5 TV Live

Top Stories

National News

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 07: Co-host Dolly Parton speaks onstage during the 57th Academy of Countr...
Eliza Pace

Dolly Parton joins Tiktok: ‘Better late than never!’

Dolly Parton has officially joined Tiktok.
17 hours ago
Celebrity attorney Michael Avenatti walks out of a New York court house after a hearing in a case w...
AMY TAXIN, Associated Press

Avenatti sentenced to 14 years in California fraud case

Incarcerated lawyer Michael Avenatti has been sentenced in Southern California to 14 years in federal prison for cheating his clients out of millions of dollars.
17 hours ago
The Laundress recalled millions of units of its detergents and cleaning products because of possibl...
Parija Kavilanz, CNN Business

8 million cleaning products recalled over bacteria exposure risk

The Laundress brand of detergent and household cleaning products has recalled about eight million products because of the possible presence of bacteria that could pose a health risk to consumers.
17 hours ago
(U.S. Marshal's Service)...
STEFANIE DAZIO, Associated Press

Man who shot Lady Gaga’s dog walker gets 21 years in prison

The man who shot and wounded Lady Gaga’s dog walker and stole her French bulldogs last year has taken a plea deal and was sentenced to 21 years in prison.
17 hours ago
NASA's Orion spacecraft beamed back close-up photos of the moon and Earth on Monday, Dec. 5, 2022. ...
MARCIA DUNN AP Aerospace Writer

NASA capsule flies over Apollo moon landing sites, heads home

NASA's Orion capsule is on its way home from the moon to wrap up a three-week test flight. The capsule and its test dummies came within 80 miles of the far side of the moon Monday.
17 hours ago
Airline passengers, some not wearing face masks following the end of Covid-19 public transportation...
Geneva Sands and Forrest Brown, CNN

Deadline for REAL ID extended, giving US air travelers a reprieve

If you've been sweating out that latest deadline for REAL ID required for US air travel, you're getting another reprieve.
17 hours ago

Sponsored Articles

house with for rent sign posted...
Chase Harrington, president and COO of Entrata

Top 5 reasons you may want to consider apartment life over owning a home

There are many benefits of renting that can be overshadowed by the allure of buying a home. Here are five reasons why renting might be right for you.
Festive kitchen in Christmas decorations. Christmas dining room....
Lighting Design

6 Holiday Decor Trends to Try in 2022

We've rounded out the top 6 holiday decor trends for 2022 so you can be ahead of the game before you start shopping. 
Happy diverse college or university students are having fun on their graduation day...
BYU MBA at the Marriott School of Business

How to choose what MBA program is right for you: Take this quiz before you apply!

Wondering what MBA program is right for you? Take this quiz before you apply to see if it will help you meet your goals.
Diverse Group of Energetic Professionals Team Meeting in Modern Office: Brainstorming IT Programmer...
Les Olson

Don’t let a ransomware attack get you down | Protect your workplace today with cyber insurance

Business owners and operators should be on guard to protect their workplace. Cyber insurance can protect you from online attacks.
Hand turning a thermostat knob to increase savings by decreasing energy consumption. Composite imag...
Lighting Design

5 Lighting Tips to Save Energy and Money in Your Home

Advances in lighting technology make it easier to use smart features to cut costs. Read for tips to save energy by using different lighting strategies in your home.
Portrait of smiling practitioner with multi-ethnic senior people...
Summit Vista

How retirement communities help with healthy aging

There are many benefits that retirement communities contribute to healthy aging. Learn more about how it can enhance your life, or the life of your loved ones.
74% Of Economists In Survey See US Recession By End Of 2021