Most North Carolina and Virginia GOP primary voters would consider Trump fit for presidency if convicted

(CNN) — Nearly two-thirds of North Carolina primary voters say that they’d consider former President Donald Trump fit for the presidency if he’s convicted of a crime, according to the initial results of CNN’s exit poll of Republican primary voters in the state, with slightly over half of GOP primary voters in Virginia saying the same.

Roughly 4 in 10 primary voters in North Carolina describe themselves as part of the MAGA, or “Make America Great Again,” movement, compared to about one-third in Virginia. That’s below the 46% in Iowa’s caucuses who identified with the MAGA slogan. In South Carolina, about 41% of GOP primary voters described themselves as identifying with MAGA, with about one-third of New Hampshire GOP primary voters saying the same.

Roughly 6 in 10 North Carolina GOP primary voters baselessly deny that President Joe Biden’s 2020 election win was legitimate, as do close to half of Virginia voters. Across all of the states of the GOP primary this year where entrance and exit polls have been conducted – including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – none has seen a majority of the GOP electorate willing to acknowledge the results of the 2020 election.

Exit polls are a valuable tool to help understand primary voters’ demographic profile and political views. Like all surveys, however, exit polls are estimates, not precise measurements of the electorate. That’s particularly true for the preliminary set of exit poll numbers, which haven’t yet been weighted to match the final results of the primaries. But the results provide a glimpse of the type of voters turning out to participate.

How most GOP voters feel

About three-quarters of North Carolina GOP primary voters and roughly 6 in 10 Virginia GOP primary voters say they’d be satisfied to see Trump win the nomination.

In North Carolina, nearly 8 in 10 call themselves conservative, and about 4 in 10 say they’re very conservative. In Virginia, about two-thirds call themselves conservative, with about 3 in 10 calling themselves very conservative.

That puts those states somewhere in the middle between Iowa’s presidential caucuses, in which about half of voters described themselves as very conservative, and New Hampshire’s primary, where only about one quarter did. South Carolina’s primary electorate also fell in between those two early states, with 40% calling themselves very conservative.

Most North Carolina and Virginia voters decided early on whom to back for president, according to the early exit polls. Roughly two-thirds of Virginia Republican primary voters say they made their decision before the year even started, with only about 15% saying they decided in the campaign’s final week. In North Carolina, about half of GOP primary voters made up their minds before 2024, with about one-fifth deciding in the final week.

The exit polls for North Carolina, Virginia and California’s Republican presidential primaries and California’s US Senate primary were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. The North Carolina Republican primary poll includes 1,484 interviews with Republican primary voters across 19 early in-person voting sites and 30 different polling places on Election Day, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for the full sample.

The Virginia Republican primary poll includes 1,196 interviews with Republican primary voters across 30 different polling places on Election Day, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for the full sample. The California Republican primary poll includes 585 interviews conducted prior to Election Day on Feb. 25-March 3, using telephone, email and text messaging to reach respondents selected from the voter file, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for the full sample. The California Senate primary poll includes 1,408 interviews conducted prior to Election Day on Feb. 25-March 3, using telephone, email and text messaging to reach respondents selected from the voter file, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for the full sample.